Dear Investor,
Bank of America stock analysts recently released a long-term forecast that bodes very badly for investors for the next decade. If the analysts are correct, many investors will not reach their long-term financial goals.
But one investing strategy looks to avoid the problem…
In October, several news outlets, including Yahoo Finance and Markets Insider, discussed a valuation projection from Bank of America in which analysts expect U.S. stock market returns to be flat or down for the next decade.
If the outlook is correct, the markets will experience a sharp shift from the 16% average annual returns posted by the S&P 500 over the last decade and the 10% average return for the long term.
According to the Markets Insider article, the forecast produces a 10-year total return of 36%, or about 3% per year with reinvested dividends. The Bank of America forecast bases its prediction on supply chain issues and a current peak of globalization. This quote noted that the lower expected returns match the longer-term market results.
“While BofA’s outlook is much bleaker than recent history, it would continue a decades-long trend of dividends driving much of the stock market’s return. Since 1970, 84% of the total return of the S&P 500 can be attributed to reinvested dividends, according to data from Morningstar and Hartford Funds.”
I like to talk to investors about a market strategy that will work, whether the Bank of America analysts are right or way off base. Assuming the predictions are spot-on, however, BofA’s outlook supports my Dividend Hunter strategy to invest in higher yield stocks to generate a stable and growing income stream.
The Stable Dividends category in my broader Dividend Hunter recommendations list carries an average yield of 7%. In addition, I expect a minimum of 10 of the 14 stocks in this category to grow their dividends over the long term.
I like to say that cash returns are real returns that cannot be pulled back by an uncooperative stock market. Investors who follow the Dividend Hunter strategy can confidently count on hitting their long-term financial goals.
I encourage my subscribers to build a diversified, high-yield portfolio using all the recommendations list investments. With that in mind, the relatively new Hoya Capital High Dividend Yield ETF (RIET) employs a high yield-plus-dividend growth strategy that will still let investors reach their goals if the Bank of America analysts are correct.