Monday, February 10, 2025
Bond prices have rallied lately with the expectations that interest rates won’t go quite as high as originally expected. (Bond prices move opposite of yields.) This includes government bonds, corporate bonds, and high yield bonds as well. A very large bullish call spread in iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) suggests there […]
A recent article on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) had me going, “huh?” The story covers MBSs being very popular when mortgage rates were less than 3%, but now with rates over 7%, large, institutional buyers are staying away. That’s one reason why mortgage rates are so high, despite MBSs in theory being more profitable today. That’s […]
The latest bank earnings season highlighted the difference between the banks that rely on deal-making (Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) versus those that are deposit banks that rely more on U.S. consumers and businesses (Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citibank). Deposit banks are in a generally better position to earn greater margins on the […]
There’s a sector of the market that’s seeing strong rallying in 2022. It’s holding up above pre-2020 numbers (unlike many tech stocks). When a new bull market emerges, this sector typically kicks it off. In this free weekly video — I release them every Thursday — I have 2 things to share with you: First, […]
A lower than expected CPI number sent stock soaring last week. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) jumped 5.5% on the day of the release. Moreover, what looks like a massive covered call trade on SPY also occurred on the day, which may imply the index could climb as high as $420 in the next […]
If you think that last week’s inflation numbers would cause the Fed to pivot, I have a bridge conveniently located in lower Manhattan that offers easy access to Brooklyn available for immediate sale. You could make millions charging other people big bucks to use your new bridge and recoup your costs in no time. Yes, […]
There was a recent major development that many investors have almost completely ignored: the U.S. government is getting into the domestic mining and battery industries. As part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Department of Energy handed several companies big lumps of cash in mid-October, ranging from $50 million to $316 million, adding up […]
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine massively disrupted the European energy scene. The crisis revealed what I believe will be the energy story for the next decades: liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the fuel source to power the globe. A recent report from Texans for Natural Gas highlights how the LNG market has shifted dramatically in response […]
The collapse in cryptocurrencies (brought about by the insolvency of FTX) spilled over into equities markets last week. Bears are betting that Coinbase (COIN) is going to succumb to the downside pressure as well. While the FTX news was being digested by the market, traders purchased a large amount of puts in COIN, possibly expecting […]
In late 2021, when it became apparent that inflation would stay persistent and increasing, I started to get a lot of questions about where to invest. When inflation rears its ugly head, there is no magic list of investments that help you beat inflation all of the time. While it would be good if there […]
